Understanding Election Victories with a Huge Majority in a two Party Democracy:
By
Ram Krishnaswamy,
Sydney, Australia
A Two Party Democracy, as we all know is a Two horse Race, one has to win and the other obviously has to lose.
In Countries where there are many smaller Political Parties, these smaller ones hedge their bets and join one of the two major parties and these are now called Coalitions. In India the Congress and the BJP are the two leading parties, so much smaller political parties align themselves with one or the other. For Example in Tamil Nadu the DMK is in Coalition with the Congress Party and so its main opponent in Tamil Nadu the AIDMK ( which is an off shoot of original DMK ) forges a relationship with BJP which is an anti Dravidian party, only to win elections. Politicians do not care. All they want is to get elected so they can rule and plunder the state or the nation.
Let us look at the BJP rule under PM Modi.
In 2014, Modi contested for the two Lok Sabha constituencies: Varanasi and Vadodara. He won in both constituencies, defeating Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal in Varanasi and Madhusudan Mistry of the Indian National Congress in Vadodara. To comply with the law that an elected representative cannot represent more than one constituency, he vacated the Vadodara seat. In 2019 he was again re-elected from Varanasi.
History of democratic elections all over the world reveals a Real Secret. The Secret is, that the very people who elect a party are so disenfranchised with their abysmal performance that the non aligned voters also known as the swing Voters vote against the ruling party and elect a new one hoping they would govern better.
Indian has seen this time and again.
Let us look at the electoral history of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was Prime Minister of India in 1996 and again from 1998 till 2004 and Leader of the Bhartiya Janata Party from 1989 to 2004. He was elected to Lok Sabha 10 times from different constituencies during different Lok Sabha tenure. He also served as a Member of Rajya Sabha for 2 terms. He although failed to enter in Parliament 5 times.
Did India Vote BJP into Power in 1996 and in 1998 or Did they Vote Congress Party Out. ??
A Two Party Democracy, as we all know is a Two horse Race, one has to win and the other obviously has to lose.
In Countries where there are many smaller Political Parties, these smaller ones hedge their bets and join one of the two major parties and these are now called Coalitions. In India the Congress and the BJP are the two leading parties, so much smaller political parties align themselves with one or the other. For Example in Tamil Nadu the DMK is in Coalition with the Congress Party and so its main opponent in Tamil Nadu the AIDMK ( which is an off shoot of original DMK ) forges a relationship with BJP which is an anti Dravidian party, only to win elections. Politicians do not care. All they want is to get elected so they can rule and plunder the state or the nation.
Let us look at the BJP rule under PM Modi.
In 2014, Modi contested for the two Lok Sabha constituencies: Varanasi and Vadodara. He won in both constituencies, defeating Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal in Varanasi and Madhusudan Mistry of the Indian National Congress in Vadodara. To comply with the law that an elected representative cannot represent more than one constituency, he vacated the Vadodara seat. In 2019 he was again re-elected from Varanasi.
History of democratic elections all over the world reveals a Real Secret. The Secret is, that the very people who elect a party are so disenfranchised with their abysmal performance that the non aligned voters also known as the swing Voters vote against the ruling party and elect a new one hoping they would govern better.
Indian has seen this time and again.
Let us look at the electoral history of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was Prime Minister of India in 1996 and again from 1998 till 2004 and Leader of the Bhartiya Janata Party from 1989 to 2004. He was elected to Lok Sabha 10 times from different constituencies during different Lok Sabha tenure. He also served as a Member of Rajya Sabha for 2 terms. He although failed to enter in Parliament 5 times.
Did India Vote BJP into Power in 1996 and in 1998 or Did they Vote Congress Party Out. ??
This is the Million Dollar question?. Don’t listen to what die hard Congress or BJP supporters want to tell you as the results were decided by not these ardent supporters who are the mainstay but the SWING VOTERS. Swing voters cannot be bothered about Politics yet when It is time to vote they use it to dump the incumbent for poor performance as an elected party placed in Power.
Now why did a Party like BJP that had won in 1996 and again in 1998 and ably run by a Neta Like Atal Vajpayee loose the elections in 2004 ?
This can appear to be a million dollar question for people wearing blinkers. Indians voted BJP out for what happened in Gujerat during the 2002 Gujerat Riots when Modi was the Chief Minister
Now why did a Party like BJP that had won in 1996 and again in 1998 and ably run by a Neta Like Atal Vajpayee loose the elections in 2004 ?
This can appear to be a million dollar question for people wearing blinkers. Indians voted BJP out for what happened in Gujerat during the 2002 Gujerat Riots when Modi was the Chief Minister
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Gujarat_riots).
Many BJP leaders did blame Modi for their election loss and the return of Congress led by Sonia Gandhi with Man Mohan Singh as Prime Minister. Manmohan Singh may have been a Good Public Servant but as PM as the nation knows he was a mere puppet on Strings.
During his Tenure as PM for UPA I and UPA II, a blind man can tell you it was the most corrupt Govt with each and every elected Cabinet Minister digging for Gold. The worst scams occurred in India during this period.
In a Democracy like Australia where no one is above the law, I have seen a State Premier being forced to resign as he received an expensive bottle of wine costing about $3500. Heads Roll when they are accused and found guilty.
India is another kettle of Fish. Politicians and Bureaucrats are above the law and seldom get punished and to a large extent the Executive Controls the Judiciary as the executive picks and chooses the judges to appoint plus retired judges depend on Politicians to give them Cushy Honorary jobs post retirement. So it is a “You scratch my back and I scratch Yours" scenario”
So Did BJP win national elections in 2014 or did the People of India Kick the Congress out ?
The answer is Blowing in the wind. Of course people voted the Corrupt Congress out of Power and I fully endorsed it too and celebrated too when PM Modi came to Sydney. Even though I do not back any Political party, I was very pleased to wear a Modi T Shirt and attend the meet at Acer Arena in Sydney. (I wish I could locate the photo which is in one of my older discarded Samsung Mob phones.) I was celebrating the Congress Party's defeat not the BJP win like all other Swing voters in India
In his very first term as PM of India in 2014 Modi did not enjoy a majority in Both Houses and did not have a huge lead in the lower house either
The election results were declared on 16 May 2014, 15 days before the 15th Lok Sabha completed its constitutional mandate on 31 May 2014. The counting exercise was held at 989 counting centres. The National Democratic Alliance won a sweeping victory, taking 336 seats. The BJP won only 31.0% votes, which is the lowest share for a party to form a majority government in India since independence, while NDA's combined vote share was 38.5%. BJP and its allies won the right to form the largest majority government since the 1984 general election, and it was the first time since that election that a party had won enough seats to govern without the support of other parties.
In his first term Modi as PM did not really achieve much besides visiting every country in the world. Non eventful period virtually but a peaceful era.
This is what happened during Modi’s second Term. :-
To constitute India's 17th Lok Sabha, general elections were held in April–May 2019. The results were announced on 23 May 2019. The main contenders were two alliance groups of the Incumbent National Democratic Alliance and the Opposition United Progressive Alliance; led by Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian National Congress respectively.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA won the elections with the BJP itself winning a clear majority. The BJP become the single largest party in the House and surpassed expectations to win 303 seats, with its alliance partners bringing the NDA to a total of 353 seats.
During his Tenure as PM for UPA I and UPA II, a blind man can tell you it was the most corrupt Govt with each and every elected Cabinet Minister digging for Gold. The worst scams occurred in India during this period.
In a Democracy like Australia where no one is above the law, I have seen a State Premier being forced to resign as he received an expensive bottle of wine costing about $3500. Heads Roll when they are accused and found guilty.
India is another kettle of Fish. Politicians and Bureaucrats are above the law and seldom get punished and to a large extent the Executive Controls the Judiciary as the executive picks and chooses the judges to appoint plus retired judges depend on Politicians to give them Cushy Honorary jobs post retirement. So it is a “You scratch my back and I scratch Yours" scenario”
So Did BJP win national elections in 2014 or did the People of India Kick the Congress out ?
The answer is Blowing in the wind. Of course people voted the Corrupt Congress out of Power and I fully endorsed it too and celebrated too when PM Modi came to Sydney. Even though I do not back any Political party, I was very pleased to wear a Modi T Shirt and attend the meet at Acer Arena in Sydney. (I wish I could locate the photo which is in one of my older discarded Samsung Mob phones.) I was celebrating the Congress Party's defeat not the BJP win like all other Swing voters in India
In his very first term as PM of India in 2014 Modi did not enjoy a majority in Both Houses and did not have a huge lead in the lower house either
The election results were declared on 16 May 2014, 15 days before the 15th Lok Sabha completed its constitutional mandate on 31 May 2014. The counting exercise was held at 989 counting centres. The National Democratic Alliance won a sweeping victory, taking 336 seats. The BJP won only 31.0% votes, which is the lowest share for a party to form a majority government in India since independence, while NDA's combined vote share was 38.5%. BJP and its allies won the right to form the largest majority government since the 1984 general election, and it was the first time since that election that a party had won enough seats to govern without the support of other parties.
In his first term Modi as PM did not really achieve much besides visiting every country in the world. Non eventful period virtually but a peaceful era.
Conclusion:
When people, meaning the non Political swing voters who form the majority in all democracies are Satisfied and not unhappy with a ruling party they just re-elect them.
This is what happened during Modi’s second Term. :-
To constitute India's 17th Lok Sabha, general elections were held in April–May 2019. The results were announced on 23 May 2019. The main contenders were two alliance groups of the Incumbent National Democratic Alliance and the Opposition United Progressive Alliance; led by Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian National Congress respectively.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA won the elections with the BJP itself winning a clear majority. The BJP become the single largest party in the House and surpassed expectations to win 303 seats, with its alliance partners bringing the NDA to a total of 353 seats.
Reasons attributed to the victory included the personal popularity of Narendra Modi, effective voter turnout drives by the NDA, a surge in public nationalism following the Pulwama attack, the consolidation of Hindu voters in a multi-caste coalition and the successful implementation of social welfare programmes during the First Modi ministry's term.
The Truth may be the other way round.
The Truth may be the other way round.
Indians meaning the non political swing voters who form the real majority did not want the Corrupt Congress Party back in Power. Congress party for all Practical Purposes is a Dead Horse and it is time for Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi to quit Politics and lead a decent private life. Most Indians do not even see the the Younger Gandhi's as Indians.
Gandhi Dynasty is Dead and Buried forever.
Power Corrupts and Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely:-
Power Corrupts and Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely:-
"Corrupt" here does not refer to the common adage of receiving bribes but "corruption of the mind space" which says the majority of people are backing me so I as leader can do what I please; in other words ARROGANCE
PM Modi’s Biggest Down fall as leader of the nation was the election of Amit Shah the BJP Party President in the second term and his appointment as Home Minister.
World History tells us that Hitler on his own was an individual from an impoverished German family who wanted the upliftment of Germans. But when Himmler and Goebbels joined forces with Hitler, Hell broke loose and we know the history ( I am not suggesting that PM Modi is a Hitler but giving similarities in History)
Being a non political individual, when Vajpaaye’s BJP got elected beating UPA I, I never knew that BJP was linked to RSS as to me BJP was the National Janata Party. The Only bit of history I remember is that Mahatma Gandhi was assassinated by an RSS man Nathuram Godse, an advocate of Hindu nationalism
I am just reading up the History of RSS which was founded in 1925 and as of 2014 may have about 5 or 6 million registered Members.
Here is a bit of Cut and Paste Job :-
“The Jana Sangh started making alliances by entering the anti-Congress coalitions since 1960s. It became part of the 1971 Grand Alliance and finally merged itself with the Janata Party in 1977. The success of Janata Party in 1977 elections made the RSS members central ministers for the first time (Vajpayee, Advani and Brij Lal Verma), and provided the RSS with an opportunity to avail the state and its instruments to further its ends, through the resources of various state governments as well as the central government.
PM Modi’s Biggest Down fall as leader of the nation was the election of Amit Shah the BJP Party President in the second term and his appointment as Home Minister.
World History tells us that Hitler on his own was an individual from an impoverished German family who wanted the upliftment of Germans. But when Himmler and Goebbels joined forces with Hitler, Hell broke loose and we know the history ( I am not suggesting that PM Modi is a Hitler but giving similarities in History)
Being a non political individual, when Vajpaaye’s BJP got elected beating UPA I, I never knew that BJP was linked to RSS as to me BJP was the National Janata Party. The Only bit of history I remember is that Mahatma Gandhi was assassinated by an RSS man Nathuram Godse, an advocate of Hindu nationalism
I am just reading up the History of RSS which was founded in 1925 and as of 2014 may have about 5 or 6 million registered Members.
Here is a bit of Cut and Paste Job :-
“The Jana Sangh started making alliances by entering the anti-Congress coalitions since 1960s. It became part of the 1971 Grand Alliance and finally merged itself with the Janata Party in 1977. The success of Janata Party in 1977 elections made the RSS members central ministers for the first time (Vajpayee, Advani and Brij Lal Verma), and provided the RSS with an opportunity to avail the state and its instruments to further its ends, through the resources of various state governments as well as the central government.
However, this merger, which was seen as a dilution of its original doctrine, was viewed by the ex-Jana Sanghis as submersion of their initial identity. Meanwhile, the other components of the Janata Party denounced the allegiance the ex-Jana Sanghis continued to pay to the RSS. This led to a 'dual membership' controversy, regarding the links the former Jana Sangh members were retaining with the RSS, and it led to the split of Janata Party in 1979.
The former Jana Sangh elements formed a new party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in 1980. However, BJP originated more as a successor to the Janata Party and did not return to the beginning stages of the Hindu nationalist identity and Jana Sangh doctrines. The RSS resented this dilution of ideology – the new slogans promoted by the then BJP president Vajpayee like 'Gandhian socialism' and 'positive secularism'.
The former Jana Sangh elements formed a new party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in 1980. However, BJP originated more as a successor to the Janata Party and did not return to the beginning stages of the Hindu nationalist identity and Jana Sangh doctrines. The RSS resented this dilution of ideology – the new slogans promoted by the then BJP president Vajpayee like 'Gandhian socialism' and 'positive secularism'.
By early 1980s, RSS is said to have established its political strategy of "never keeping all its eggs in one basket"
It is now very apparent that RSS Controls BJP in the 21st Century.
The Truth still remains, which is that the Swing voters did not want Congress back in 2019.
Lets us look at recent US elections : The question is:- " Did Joe Biden win the elections as American people loved him. No Sir. Americans Voted Donald Trump Out."
It is now very apparent that RSS Controls BJP in the 21st Century.
The Truth still remains, which is that the Swing voters did not want Congress back in 2019.
Lets us look at recent US elections : The question is:- " Did Joe Biden win the elections as American people loved him. No Sir. Americans Voted Donald Trump Out."
PM Modi has lost his Plot and lost his so called Majority support of Indians. He has alienated Muslims, Christians, Punjabis, Maharashtrians, all Dravidians in South India, all Bengalis by trying to look like Tagore :-( , and all non Hindi speaking Indians by talking about making Hindi a national language.
So what is Modis support base now, just the die hard RSS Members and members of the upper caste aka Hindu Brahmins (More on this Uppercaste Hindu Domination later)
So what is Modis support base now, just the die hard RSS Members and members of the upper caste aka Hindu Brahmins (More on this Uppercaste Hindu Domination later)
What BJP Majority ? What happened ?
A Picture speaks a thousand words
2021 State Elections, BJP did not even win one Seat in Kerala. In Tamil Nadu ADMK got kicked out as it was aligned with BJP. As one staunch ADMK supporter said Yes ADMK lost but in a way it is good as we got rid of the "Monkey on our backs" meaning BJP. In West Bengal BJP boasted it could win over 200 seats and oust Mamtaji. Bengalis did not think so. 213 seats out of 293 were won by Trinamool Congress Led by Mamta Banerjee
Modi can kiss his Prime Ministership goodbye sooner than later. He might even buckle under pressure get sick and resign, who knows. Law of Gravity says everything that goes up has to come down and Nothing in life is permanent.
A clever leader listens to his Critics and this is exactly where Modi has failed as he has been only listening to his sidekicks who are blind Hindu Fundamentalists. And today even these Bhakts realise that they are not Covid Proof and need ICU Beds and Oxygen too and gasping for air. It is now up to their Gods to save them considering they are holier than the untouchable masses.
Aryan Hindus & Dravidian Hindus
Trying to understand who the Aryans and Dravidians were and how the Caste system got created and embedded in the Indian Culture:
I am no expert, so I leaned on my good friend who has done a lifetime of research to explain to me in a few short paragraphs. His reaction was as expected. Ram I can write many books on this but you are asking me to explain all this in a few short paras. I assumed he had declined. But was surprised to receive this on Whatsapp This morning
This is quite an eye opener for me and am sure for most readers, unless they are wearing blinkers.
Genetic evidence indicates that folks of Aryan background migrated into India around 3500 years ago carrying with them their belief that God is Supreme, the Creator and he manages human lives.
The folks in India at that time did not have such beliefs, but they appear to have the concept of God as protectors. The protectors were their ancestors, who after death resided in the same region/villages to protect them against enemies. There was a belief that they resided in the memorials that were built for the dead and in the trees that grew around their burial sites.
Genetically, the Aryans were of Y-chromosome Haplogroup R1 while the Dravidians (or folks who had arrived into the Indian peninsula several thousand years earlier) were of Haplogroup L and others, but not R and its subgroups. Even now a person's ancestry can be determined by a simple DNA assay.
The Aryans readily blended with the Dravidians, as current genetic analysis shows.
The South, meaning South of the Vindhya Mountains is predominantly Dravidian while the Northern folks have a higher degree of Aryan genes. There are no pure Aryans in India now, for that one would have to go to Poland and Europe.
For some political reason, approximately 1900 years ago, the blending of folks of different descent stopped, and some speculate this may be due to Manusmriti which introduces Varna classification and imposes social division. This concept emerged over the following period as Castes, and Caste begins to play a significant role in social organization, at the expense of social well being.
Many Brahmins in the South would call themselves as of Aryan descent, and believe that they follow Vedic tradition. In fact, they pray to Dravidian gods such as Shiva, Vishnu, Kali, Murugan, Kottravai, and many others. These gods are not found in Rig Veda. The few occurrences of Shiva in Rig Veda is minor, and many scholars believe that they were later additions. Vishnu is absent in Rig Veda. Krishna in Rig Veda occurs as an adjective, not as a premier God.
There is no mention of Kali, no mention of Murugan followed by Tamils. The premier God in the Rig Veda is Indira and Agni. No Hindu in India has built a temple for them.
I believe that the South was a rich region, agriculture and products were made. We have records from Rome of importing fine cotton, Nero complained of great loss of Roman wealth to the East (meaning Tamils). Pearls from Pandya kingdom were a hit hit. Archeological findings of Tamil letter bearing large storage pots were found in Egypt. There was an active trade in spices, especially via Kerala ports.
The migration of Brahmins from North to the Tamil region was very small until the Pallavas. Although there are references to Vedas being chanted in Sangam texts, they were a small minority and they stuck to themselves, for a great part.
The Pallava period changed this quite a bit, they began the tradition of Brahmin priests. Brahmins until then would do yagna out in the forests to please their gods in the Rig Veda, not the Dravidian gods that were housed in small huts or simply under a tree.
Since they spoke a language that no one understood, the belief that they are God's representative on Earth took root. Slowly temple priests (in Tamil called oothuvar) were replaced in built temples. Even today in village temples in TN, it is the Oothuvars who conduct "Padayal" and prayers.
The Brahmins sold the idea to the Kings of TN of building temples on their territory borders to protect their kingdoms. Note here -- god is the protector.
That spun a large temple building projects in TN and it created employment opportunities for the Brahmins who moved onto manage the prayer service in the temples. The Kings gave them presents, as giving land which was tax exempt. These events enriched the Brahmin community.
The three major kings welcomed the Brahmins and supported them. But the real major arrival of Brahmins were during Vijayanagar period in 15th century. Prior to that their number in TN was relatively small and was in the northern part of TN.
During Vijayanagar period the spread fairly broad into the Pandya region. It appears the Kongu region remained relatively original folks, with little influence of Brahmins. It is also noteworthy, there are very few ancient temples in Kongu region (Coimbatore-Salem-Erode). Just aside, Ayyar means "Thalaivan" - a distinguished person. Parpanan means "supervisor".
The word Ayyar is not found in any ancient texts. But Parpanan shows up in inscriptions during Medieval Chozha period. And, Ayyangar begins to occur during Vijayanagar period. Ayyangar is literally Ayyar Garu, which indicates they are of Andhra origin.
Hindi as National Language:
Indira Gandhi's effort to make Hindi the National language touting it is spoken by the majority resulted in anti Hindi agitation in Tamli Nadu when the Congress Chief Minister of TN ordered the Police to open fire which resulted in the death of some Annamalai University students. Congress never got re elected in Tamil Nadu since 1967., which is 54 long years
Prime Minister Modi repeated the same mistake of beating the drums for Hindi as National Language as it is spoken by majority.. Even Gujjus did not agree. Fact is for about 65% of Indians Hindi is not the Mother Tongue. so much for the touted majority
All This Boils down to is what Mahatma Gandhi put down succinctly
