The World Ahead in 2022
The Economist
These are The Economist predictions for 2022
Tom Standage
the Editor 10 picks
Biden has said that western democracies are in a ‘contest’ with autocratic governments.
Chinese officials say that “east is rising and the west is declining”
Mr. Xi has embarked on a no holds barred effort to cut china’s capitalist titans down to size, erasing as much as $1.5 trillion in shareholder value with his clampdown on technology companies and imposing tough restrictions.
A shortage of fossil fuels which account for 83% of primary energy usage is threatening to push up global inflation beyond 5%.
For sustainable energy, energy investment needs to increase from 2% of world GDP to 5%, bills and taxes must rise.
The emerging world accounts for66% of the energy related carbon emissions, yet lacks the cash and the innovation base to invest its way to a cleaner energy system. The rich countries have to realize that this is also their problem and this will be at the heart of the fourth stage of the climate journey.
Though inflation will be up in 2022, most central bankers feel that it takes about 12 to 18 months for interest rates to settle in.
The supply side economy will adapt to patterns of spending and working that are different from the past.
- Democracy vs autocracy
- Pandemic to endemic
- Inflation worrie
- The future of work
- The new techlash
- Crypto grows up
- Climate crunch
- Travel trouble
- Space race
- Political footballs
Biden has said that western democracies are in a ‘contest’ with autocratic governments.
Chinese officials say that “east is rising and the west is declining”
Mr. Xi has embarked on a no holds barred effort to cut china’s capitalist titans down to size, erasing as much as $1.5 trillion in shareholder value with his clampdown on technology companies and imposing tough restrictions.
A shortage of fossil fuels which account for 83% of primary energy usage is threatening to push up global inflation beyond 5%.
For sustainable energy, energy investment needs to increase from 2% of world GDP to 5%, bills and taxes must rise.
The emerging world accounts for66% of the energy related carbon emissions, yet lacks the cash and the innovation base to invest its way to a cleaner energy system. The rich countries have to realize that this is also their problem and this will be at the heart of the fourth stage of the climate journey.
Though inflation will be up in 2022, most central bankers feel that it takes about 12 to 18 months for interest rates to settle in.
The supply side economy will adapt to patterns of spending and working that are different from the past.
Before the pandemic in America,5% worked remotely and 27% had flexible hours.Today it is 40% and 88% respectively.
When people work in a hybrid manner ‘fairness’ assumes greater significance, fairness in evaluating and rewarding performance.
We predict a two tier work force– a highly "rewarded in group" and a "less rewarded out group"
There are three fundamental changes in
finance and they are no longer the purview of the sharp suited bankers and credit card
executives.
1.The effort to offer a wide range of financial products on a singe platform
2.An attempt to decentralize finance
3.Central banks usually conservative, are breaking new ground.
Due to the crackdown on tech giants in china, we see two things:
1.a decline in the profitability of Chinese tech sector and
2. how Chinese tech groups raise capital as neither America nor China wants these firms to go public.
Americas influence abroad depends on its ability to fix its internal problems. American society is deeply polarized and found it difficult to find consensus on virtually anything.
Saudi Arabia needs foreign investment to move its economy away from oil. Its policies need to change.
In Africa, the smaller, nimble economies will thrive while the larger economies will struggle.
Of the world’s 15 most fragile states, 11 are in sub Saharan Africa.
Implementation will be the key on climate change, a lot of talking has happened.
One of the depressing features of covid was obesity amongst children.
27% of over weight kids under five live in Africa and 48% are in Asia.
Implementation will be the key on climate change, a lot of talking has happened.
One of the depressing features of covid was obesity amongst children.
27% of over weight kids under five live in Africa and 48% are in Asia.
At the end of 2020, the number of people globally living under $1.90 per day was 750 million people. By the end of 2022, that number is expected to be 685 million people.
1 out of 10 people who will be poor in the world will live in cities.
Governments across the world introduced 3300 schemes between March 2020 and May 2021 targeting the poor, including direct bank transfers.
“We will see a new model, a shift from public – private partnerships to people-public-private partnerships, this will happen, more in a digital world.”– Audrey tang,
Digital Minister China
In 2022, the EU will figure out what ‘strategic autonomy” means and who is in charge?
In 2021, the EU has a new prosecutor– the European Public Prosecutors office (EPPO) who can try anyone involved in abuses over Euro 100,000.
Many of the cases will involve embezzlements or kickbacks in EU subsidies and contracts.
Queen Elizabeth will complete 70 years on Feb 6th, there will be many celebrations as Britons will wonder how long the monarchy will be relevant. Prince Charles is nowhere near popular as his mother.
Ireland and Egypt will celebrate their centenaries in 2022.
Goods shortages will last into the second half of 2022. As pandemic lifts and GDP bounces back , the impact of Brexit will be clear.
BBC first made its broadcast on November 14, 1922. As it celebrates 100 years, the BBC will be vulnerable.
In 2022, the EU will figure out what ‘strategic autonomy” means and who is in charge?
In 2021, the EU has a new prosecutor– the European Public Prosecutors office (EPPO) who can try anyone involved in abuses over Euro 100,000.
Many of the cases will involve embezzlements or kickbacks in EU subsidies and contracts.
Queen Elizabeth will complete 70 years on Feb 6th, there will be many celebrations as Britons will wonder how long the monarchy will be relevant. Prince Charles is nowhere near popular as his mother.
Ireland and Egypt will celebrate their centenaries in 2022.
Goods shortages will last into the second half of 2022. As pandemic lifts and GDP bounces back , the impact of Brexit will be clear.
BBC first made its broadcast on November 14, 1922. As it celebrates 100 years, the BBC will be vulnerable.
In video streaming BBC will directly compete with silicon valley and Netflix.
“Cities will lead the fight for climate change over and above governments doing their bit” – Marvin Rees, Mayor of Bristol
22 emerging technologies to watch for
“Cities will lead the fight for climate change over and above governments doing their bit” – Marvin Rees, Mayor of Bristol
22 emerging technologies to watch for
- Solar geo engineering
- Heat pumps (refrigerators in reverse)
- Hydrogen powered planes
- Direct air capture
- Vertical farming
- Container ships with sails
- VR workouts
- Vaccines for HUV and malaria
- 3D printed bone implants
- Flying electric taxis
- Space tourism
- 22 emerging technologies to watch for
- Quieter supersonic aircraft
- 3D printed homes 14. Delivery Drones
- Sleep Tech
- Personalized Nutrition
- Wearable health trackers
- The Meta verse
- Quantum computing
- Virtual Influencers
- Brain Interfaces
- Artificial meat and fish
GDP Growth in 2022
• North America 3.7%
• Latin America 2.8%
• Middle east and North Africa 4.2%
• North America 3.7%
• Latin America 2.8%
• Middle east and North Africa 4.2%
• Sub Saharan Africa 3.2%
• Western Europe 4.3%
• Asia 4.6%
• Eastern Europe 3.6%
• Australasia 2.3%
Top 10 GDP Growth countries in 2022
Macau 39.8%
Guyana 32%
Maldives 19.5%
Aruba 15 %
Venezuela 13%
St Lucia 12.1%
Libya 11.8%
Curacao 11.5%
Cambodia 10.2%
Anguilla 9.2%
CountryStatistics 2022
Country /GDP Growth 22%/GDP/head in $/GDP/head PPP$/Inflation%/Population
France/4% /46,170/54,960/1.3%/65.6 mln
• Western Europe 4.3%
• Asia 4.6%
• Eastern Europe 3.6%
• Australasia 2.3%
Top 10 GDP Growth countries in 2022
Macau 39.8%
Guyana 32%
Maldives 19.5%
Aruba 15 %
Venezuela 13%
St Lucia 12.1%
Libya 11.8%
Curacao 11.5%
Cambodia 10.2%
Anguilla 9.2%
CountryStatistics 2022
Country /GDP Growth 22%/GDP/head in $/GDP/head PPP$/Inflation%/Population
France/4% /46,170/54,960/1.3%/65.6 mln
Germany/4.2%/53,200/61,000/1.5%/82.9 mln
Italy/4.4%/36.330/47,760/1.2%/60.3 mln
Netherlands/3.9%/58,050/66,180/2.1%/17.5 mln
Russia/2.7%/12,330/30,840/4.7%/148.8 mln
Spain/5.9%/32,430/45,280/1.4%/46.7 mln
Turkey/3.6%/8180/34,570/14.1%/85.6 mln
UK/5.6%/50,590/51,050/2.5%/68.5 mln
Australia/2.2%/62,910/57,530/1.9%/25.9 mln
Bangladesh/5.7%/2360/5850/5.6%/167.9 mln
China/5.3%/12,460/20,280/2.7%/1430 mln
India/7.8%/2270/7750/5%/1410 mln
Indonesia/5%/4220/13,710/3.8%/272 mln
Japan/3%/41,360/45,800/1.6%/125.6 mln
Pakistan/3.2%/1340/5190/7%/229.5 mln
Philippines/5.1%/3580/9360/3.8%/112.5 mln
Singapore/3.7%/70,340/111,540/1.3%/5.7 mln
SouthKorea/2.7%/36,340/48,680/1.8%/51.3 mln
Sri lanka/4.1%/3930/15000/5.7%/21.6 mln
Taiwan/3.2%/33,530/66,360/2.3%/23.5 mln
Thailand/3.1%/7840/19810/1%/70.1 mln
Vietnam/6.6%/3180/9700/3.1%/99 mln
Canada/4.2%/52,670/54,600/2.2%/38.4 mln
Mexico/2.8%/10,180/21,020/3.8%/131.6 mln
USA/3.8%/73,110/73,110/3.2%/334.8 mln
Argentina/2.9%/9840/22310/46.9%/46 mln
Brazil/1.8%/8120/16470/5%/214.8 mln
Egypt/4.4%/4180/13900/5.5%/104.3 mln
Israel/4.2%/53120/46630/2.2%/9.6 mln
Kenya/4.3%/2030/4930/6%/56.2 mln
Nigeria/3.3%/2290/5400/13.3%/216.7 mln
Saudi Arabia/3.6%/22780/49980/1.9%/36.7 mln
South Africa/2.4 %/7000/14930/4.8%/60.8 mln
Some business trends for 2022
The fed will end with an interest rate of 0.63% in 2022
On line retail sales will be 17% of all sales, up from 10% in 2019. China will have 1.7 Trillion sales in online, USA will have 1 trillion in online sales.
Commodity prices will remain at same level as 2021, marginal dip
5G telecoms will reach 41 of the 60 biggest country markets by 2022.
Oil prices will be 10% higher than 2021,gas prices will stay elevated, especially in Europe.
Italy/4.4%/36.330/47,760/1.2%/60.3 mln
Netherlands/3.9%/58,050/66,180/2.1%/17.5 mln
Russia/2.7%/12,330/30,840/4.7%/148.8 mln
Spain/5.9%/32,430/45,280/1.4%/46.7 mln
Turkey/3.6%/8180/34,570/14.1%/85.6 mln
UK/5.6%/50,590/51,050/2.5%/68.5 mln
Australia/2.2%/62,910/57,530/1.9%/25.9 mln
Bangladesh/5.7%/2360/5850/5.6%/167.9 mln
China/5.3%/12,460/20,280/2.7%/1430 mln
India/7.8%/2270/7750/5%/1410 mln
Indonesia/5%/4220/13,710/3.8%/272 mln
Japan/3%/41,360/45,800/1.6%/125.6 mln
Pakistan/3.2%/1340/5190/7%/229.5 mln
Philippines/5.1%/3580/9360/3.8%/112.5 mln
Singapore/3.7%/70,340/111,540/1.3%/5.7 mln
SouthKorea/2.7%/36,340/48,680/1.8%/51.3 mln
Sri lanka/4.1%/3930/15000/5.7%/21.6 mln
Taiwan/3.2%/33,530/66,360/2.3%/23.5 mln
Thailand/3.1%/7840/19810/1%/70.1 mln
Vietnam/6.6%/3180/9700/3.1%/99 mln
Canada/4.2%/52,670/54,600/2.2%/38.4 mln
Mexico/2.8%/10,180/21,020/3.8%/131.6 mln
USA/3.8%/73,110/73,110/3.2%/334.8 mln
Argentina/2.9%/9840/22310/46.9%/46 mln
Brazil/1.8%/8120/16470/5%/214.8 mln
Egypt/4.4%/4180/13900/5.5%/104.3 mln
Israel/4.2%/53120/46630/2.2%/9.6 mln
Kenya/4.3%/2030/4930/6%/56.2 mln
Nigeria/3.3%/2290/5400/13.3%/216.7 mln
Saudi Arabia/3.6%/22780/49980/1.9%/36.7 mln
South Africa/2.4 %/7000/14930/4.8%/60.8 mln
Some business trends for 2022
The fed will end with an interest rate of 0.63% in 2022
On line retail sales will be 17% of all sales, up from 10% in 2019. China will have 1.7 Trillion sales in online, USA will have 1 trillion in online sales.
Commodity prices will remain at same level as 2021, marginal dip
5G telecoms will reach 41 of the 60 biggest country markets by 2022.
Oil prices will be 10% higher than 2021,gas prices will stay elevated, especially in Europe.
Expect Oil price to be $80 per barrel
There will be 6 million new EVs sold in 2022, China will account for 40% of this volume. How ever China has more than 50% of the lithium ion battery capacity in 2022 and will have 55% of capacity by 2025.
Three things will impact global labor markets:
1.The first is wfh, people will spend 5 times more work time outside of office than in office vs pre pandemic levels.
There will be 6 million new EVs sold in 2022, China will account for 40% of this volume. How ever China has more than 50% of the lithium ion battery capacity in 2022 and will have 55% of capacity by 2025.
Three things will impact global labor markets:
1.The first is wfh, people will spend 5 times more work time outside of office than in office vs pre pandemic levels.
2.Automation will come in as a result of the pandemic.
3.In terms of government policy, governments will want to keep unemployment down vs cutting public debt etc.
Hence,workers will have more bargaining power in 2022 than ever before.
Share of global Co2 emissions by sector: Buildings 29%
Industry 29%
Transport 22%
Hence,workers will have more bargaining power in 2022 than ever before.
Share of global Co2 emissions by sector: Buildings 29%
Industry 29%
Transport 22%
Construction 11%
Others 9%
so, property related is 40%
Streaming fights Qtr 2, 2021 subscription data
• Netflix 220 million
• Amazon prime Video135 mln
Others 9%
so, property related is 40%
Streaming fights Qtr 2, 2021 subscription data
• Netflix 220 million
• Amazon prime Video135 mln
• Disney 125 mln
• Apple TV + 65 Mln
• HBO max 55 mln
Statutory Warning:
The average American cable bill is $100, in UK it is $50 and in Emerging markets like India it is $1
Thank you
• Apple TV + 65 Mln
• HBO max 55 mln
Statutory Warning:
The average American cable bill is $100, in UK it is $50 and in Emerging markets like India it is $1
Thank you
